Have we hit bottom?

In the movie “Back to the Future” we saw an example of how beneficial it would be if we could tell the future. The character Biff Tannen gets his hands on printed results from some race track and other sporting events, before they happened, and went on to achieve phenomenal wealth.

In real world economics, the trick seems to be the ability to identify trends and accurately guess what is going to happen prior to it happening.  Here in Costa Rica, the real estate market is no different.  Discussion and speculation about the future run rampant.  Hints & clues are analyzed in a constant effort to make wise buying (and selling) decisions.

It caught my attention this morning when I received the following in an e-mail from an agent in one of the local real estate agencies. He was writing to update us on a client of ours that we had asked him to help with. Without trying, our associate provides a clue as to what the current state of the market is, and perhaps, where it is going.

*Hello [Guys],

Thank you for giving me the opportunity to assist you with the property interests of the Schmegerworgs (names changed to protect the innocent).

I feel it is of the utmost importance to give your potential buyers the Tico Times of today, Friday, Sept. 10 newspaper that explains in detail the past and current real estate market place that will back up exactly what I mentioned to them about the market picking up right now and that 2009 was a slower year (click here to read the article online). I feel it is important that the wife understands if we show them a property at a price point that makes sense and feels good in their heart, they need to move forward with a purchase as good deals are selling and we cannot always replace a fire sale or “perfect property” that one lets go by.

I truly feel our BOTTOM market has passed us and current activity with all us of can only prove that.

Whether we sell them something together or if you sell direct, that is all fine with me as I feel there is much business for all of us survivors right now.

Please take care and have a great weekend.

(Its noteworthy that this e-mail is from a “competitor”.  One of the really promising aspects of the real estate industry here in Costa Rica’s southern zone is the amount of cooperation between all the agencies.)

The ability to identify “bottom” is the hallmark of a successful investor.  It is extremely difficult to do, which explains why so many of us speak in terms of “would’a, should’a ,could’a” when talking about our investment history.

So how can we identify the bottom in the market now?

Indicators:

One of the more prominent factors are that there are less Fire Sale properties on the market now than there were before.  All the reports that we are getting from the other real estate agencies in the area are that they are busy.  This is not just under $100,000 ocean view lots.  It seems that the $300,000 home is a hot item now that won’t last long on the market.  There are also a number of larger, more removed parcels, selling.   Some of these have topped the $1,000,000 (USD) mark.  There is a growing interest in “off the grid” and “community-style” living.

We had one of our favorite developers approach us some months ago and indicate that the recession was finally affecting him, and that he really needed to sell some property.  Long story short, since that time he has sold a house and two lots, making him well.

All of the above activity was stimulated by the market ebb & flow.  The market was and is down.  The inherent quality of the properties that are available in Costa Rica’s southern pacific zone is compelling.  The low prices on these properties has caused enough action here to cause us to wonder what all this talk is about a recession – (well, not really, but almost :0)  Savvy buyers are here snapping up the deals.

No one knows what the future holds.  Things are changing on the global scale, some of which is unprecedented, causing insecurity.  We really have no idea what to expect in the future.  There is the unmanageable deficit in the U. S. There is China.  There is talk about the “double dip” recession.  There is global warming and other environmental concerns.

So have we seen the bottom?

Hard to say.  However, if you were a fly on the wall of the Guys In The Zone office (or any other real estate office in the zone), you’d hear conversations that would make it seem so.  We’ve had a number of folks come through during the down time that have found what they were looking for, but then felt that they had time to decide, to “think about it”. Or perhaps they think that prices will even come down a bit more.  Our feeling is that the time to buy has been here now for some time, and may well be passing.

What we do know is that we haven’t seen prices this low and on such a great selection for some years.  So, whether “bottom” is behind us, or lies yet ahead, we’re pretty confident that now is a decent time to buy a piece of property in Costa Rica.

Shameless Plug: Click here for all Guys In The Zone real estate listings

* Keith Schenkel of Costa Rica Real Estate Services

Answer: 98%.  The Question… what percentage of people first visit Costa Rica as tourists before buying their own piece of paradise?

Uvita's Whale's Tail formation taken from Escaleras.

Costa Rica is attractive as a vacation spot, for retirement and investment, especially in this “buyer’s market.”  In particular, the Southern Pacific Zone (and I’m talking about the area south from Quepos to Palmar) has a number a factors that set it apart from the rest of Costa Rica—the mountains-to-the-sea geography, sunset ocean views, the verdant jungles, and the protected habitats.  In addition, up and down this coastal region, resident Ticos and foreigners from all parts of the world enjoy a “small town” community feel.

For those who haven’t been down to The Zone (as we like to call it), there are small differences between the small towns in this area–

• DOMINICAL–  Many of the visitors who choose Dominical as a home base are surfers or other people who want to be within walking distance to the beach.
• UVITA–  Those who choose Uvita have either already explored Dominical or want to be close to the famous Whale’s Tail and boat launch for whale and dolphin tours, snorkeling and scuba diving adventures.  Simply put, the magical nature of these activities brings people back, year after year, in increasing numbers.
• OJOCHAL–  Located 15 minutes south of Uvita, Ojochal is one of the more established expat communities.  Originally, the coastal road only came as far north as Ojochal, hence the pre-Costanera wave of development starting in the late 90′s.  It is known as the multi-cultural hub of The Zone and home to an amazing array of culinary options.

The Zone has received a flood of publicity over the past four to five years.  Heralded as one of the world’s eco-tourism hot spots, most tourists come to our area excited by the likelihood of seeing exotic animals up close and personal.  In fact, groups of monkeys and toucans make daily visits to our property and most of the eco-hotels in the region.

Boom Markets

Another reason for the area’s popularity, one we have written about extensively, is access — the completed Coastal Highway, the improved road from San Isidro, and the proposed International Airport in the Palmar/Sierpe area 40 minutes south of Uvita.  According to the Instituto Costarricense de Turismo, tourism is up 9.6 percent for the first half of this year compared with 2009.[1] Perhaps the stimulus package in the U.S. and Europe is working?  (That was a joke.)

We only need to look at the effect of the new international airport in the Guanacaste region—131,295 tourist arrivals in the first half of 2010[2]— to understand why tourists, retirees and investors flocked there.  Thanks to the ardent publicity of television, print, and web advertising (e.g., International Living Magazine), there was a tourism and real estate boom in the first part of this decade.  The first part of 2010 is no different, as activity is up in this buyer’s market.

The Painful 2%

As for the two percent of property buyers left out of the original answer (in fact, they are the group who sparked this article), there are actually foreign investors who buy property sight-unseen.  Just in case you are not familiar with the term, it means buying land without physically seeing what you are buying.  This often happens when prospective buyers attend marketing seminars that pitch only one or two specific developments in an area.  The simple reason for this is… these marketing specialists are often The Developer!   They lure prospective investors to Costa Rica with attractive incentives like “fly and buy” programs, where discounts are applied to immediate land purchases.

There are potential problems with following this developer’s path to your future paradise.  Here’s a common scenario; you finally arrive at the small, regional airport in Costa Rica.  You meet your bilingual feet-on-the-ground sales agent/tour guide/driver.  He explains you have a full and exciting week ahead—dinners, outdoor activities, and multiple tours of the developments— so full and exciting that you never really have time to look around and get an objective view on land values and investment opportunities.

BEWARE… their bottom line is to sell you property in their developments.  I can’t tell you how many “seminar buyers” (most of whom are from Canada?) come to us after the fact and are shocked at the real market value of their land… and this was when the market was still strong.

Ben in the field with a client.

Pure Brokering

There is a simple way to avoid this investment pitfall.  Most of the real estate agencies in the area offer what we “Guys” like to call: pure brokering.  I use the word “pure” to indicate what Ben & I like to do.  I guess you could say, it’s the Guys In The Zone style.  First and foremost on our agenda is: “find you the most ideal property that fits your objectives” – pure brokering.

People ask us daily how the market is doing, and if you’ve been tuning into our Talk Shows for the past couple of years you know the market here has reflected the global market’s trend downward.  Markets go up and down… that’s just a fact of life wherever you are.  Ask any of the real estate companies in the area, activity is up… and this is typically our slow season.  It feels like we have hit the bottom, and this high season (Dec-Feb) is expected to live up to its name.

There are a variety of factors that make The Zone an attractive place to vacation, invest, and eventually retire.  And let me tell you, the only thing better than watching a flock of toucans hopping in the trees… is when you are watching a flock of toucans hopping the trees on your own property.

[2] http://www2.prensalibre.cr/pl/la_economia/28972-ingreso-de-turistas-aumento-un-96-en-primer-semestre-del-ano.html

Guys In The Zone Talk Show – Episode 8
Uploaded by GuysInTheZone. – Discover new destinations and travel videos.

Episode 8 was a bit delayed by Ben’s well-publicized mishap. Rod goes it alone (and does a darn fine job of things I might add.) Rod gets us up to speed on Ben’s recovery, the current state of the real estate market in Costa Rica’s southern pacific zone, and some hot listings.

Thanks for watching and following us on Dailymotion, Facebook, Twitter, and our websites– www.GuysInTheZone.com, www.hotcostaricarealestate.com,

Talk Show – Episode 7

Talk Show – Episode 7

Pura vida, compadres! With a focus on Costa Rica real estate, Episode 7 features our impressions on topics like–

The Rainy Season
Property Prices
Seller Financing
The NEW Forum

Thanks for watching and following us on Dailymotion, Facebook, Twitter, and our websites– www.GuysInTheZone.com, www.hotcostaricarealestate.com, www.Dominical.biz, and www.Uvita.biz.

Disclaimer: the following is not necessarily what some sellers of Costa Rica real estate want to hear.

It was sometime in 2008 when the world changed.  Our globalized economy demonstrated, for the first time, the extent to which we (all us humans) are interconnected.  When one falls, we all lose our balance.

Some of the bigger economic minds in the US got going with an illusionary slight of hand called “derivatives” and in so doing, yanked the rug out from under the U.S.’s, and then the world’s economies.

Costa Rica land sales stopped.  Here in the southern pacific zone many of the agencies have closed up shop, and the surviving agencies went 9 months with no business.

Why “no” business instead of “low” business?

2 reasons:

1. High prices
2. No credit

The fall of the world economies was rather sudden.  The prices on our real estate here in The Zone were high.  All of a sudden our prospective buyers were standing flat footed with not much money, no real way to get money, and even if they could get money, land was expensive.

The above 2 reasons that explain our 9 month freeze on the real estate business here in The Zone have both seen some activity and change.   Prices have come down by 30% – 50% across the board, and this has stimulated the market. If this isn’t obvious to you, dear reader, it may be that you have been cruising websites and listings by sellers that don’t want to lower their price, but instead wish to wait for the market to come back up.  (or you may have seen one of the numerous and un-maintained sites from now defunct Costa Rica real estate agencies)

About the “Hold Out” or  “Old World” Sellers:

Their listings in the various real estate agency’s web site databases likely pre-date the fall of the world markets.  Sellers who insist on pre-fall pricing are finding it harder and harder to find an agency to list their property.  (One of my peers at a competing agency told me recently that they had rejected 9 listings in 3 days.) Read the full story

Rod being attentive at the Camara de Bienes Raices course in San Jose Costa Rica.

The Guys just got themselves certified!  Rod & I are now card carrying Costa Rica real estate agents.  Imagine that.

I know – you’re saying: “I didn’t know that there was such a thing”. Well, in fact there isn’t, yet, but there is about to be, and so we have joined a number of our peers in anticipating the coming change to the U. S. (and elsewhere) model of licensing for real estate agents.

The organization is called CBR or “Camara de Bienes Raices” (Chamber of Real Estate).  Perhaps you’ve seen the CBR logo around on various websites. You’ll be seeing it on ours as well now.  It is a 4 day course of 8 hours a day.  We did it, enjoyed it (for the most part – butts are a little sore.), met & networked with lots of people and now feel just that much more entrenched with our chosen industry in Costa Rica.

CBR has proposed a law that they feel will become adopted this year of required licensing of Costa Rica real estate agents.  Our position is that this will be Read the full story

Talk Show – Episode 6

Talk Show – Episode 6

Welcome to our full video Talk Show format!  In addition to this new look, we share new information on Costa Rica real estate including, a recap of 2009, recent activity in the southern Pacific zone of Costa Rica, and new issues for buyers and sellers.  This post comes in advance of the new www.GuysInTheZone.com website, where you can find all of the best resources for the area in one place.  The most notable addition to our new site is the forum.  It’s there to give us all a place where we can discuss the various topics that are going on around The Zone.  To all our readers, watchers, and listeners, thank you for your questions and comments, and please feel free to get involved over at our new forum.

Uploaded by GuysInTheZone. – Explore lifestyle, fashion, and DIY videos.

Costa Rica Real Estate Listings

I just received an e-mail from a reader that shamed me into sitting right down and writing.

I have read your face book page and articles on the tax issue there.

I had been planning to take a trip in March in the hopes to travel to Domincal and Uvita nd look at some land that over looks (has view of) the playa. But with all this discussion of election and no tourism and the tricky tax factor it sort of puts a damper on it.  Was this a major blow to the real estate and tourism market, and did it blow you out?

I’m sorry but I’m not aware of the negative effect that the election could have on a land purchase in Costa Rica so I’m not able to address that.

As for tourism – well now that’s an interesting topic.

Tourism has been as hot here over this last holiday season as I have ever seen.  With the new road from Dominical to Quepos, I think that we’re really in for it here.  I understand that the status of tourism is currently anybody’s guess.  Around here it feels like we are in a growth mode. Granted, I haven’t read a lot of media recently and I don’t have a TV, so as a news source I’m limited to what I see and feel.

Over the holidays Uvita was caught by surprise.  The grocery shelves were bare and we spoke with people everyday looking for a place to stay.  I think that everyone found a bed and it felt like one big party around here. I think that it is notable that the beer supply seemed to hold despite what appeared to be a gargantuan demand.

Although the crowds have left, the festive feel continues with a good strong tourist presence.  So, without reading an article to the contrary, I’d say that tourism is alive and well in Uvita and Dominical Costa Rica, and that the prospects for the future are bright, especially with the two new segments of road making the drive from San Jose to Dominical a 2 hour and 40 minute affair now, instead of the former 4+ hours and some of that on teeth loosening dirt roads.

I have not seen an article written from your blog or website in February on your website so I want to know if you are still in business down there?

Well, I thank you for getting me off of my butt to get this article posted.  I sure don’t want to give the impression that we’re out of business.  Our lack of posting is a testament to our being busy.  Rod and I have been doing quite a bit of real estate business.  We’ve done some deals, and more are coming our way.  All of the agencies are reporting the same, some with best ever numbers – (I heard this last part through a third party, but I hope to confirm it shortly.) Read the full story

Rod & I have decided to write a few words about the year just past. We did so without consulting each other or giving any clues regarding what we’ve written.

First off is Rod

If you subscribe to the idea that life is a series of ups and downs, then last year was a harsh reminder of how challenging the “downs” can be.

• “Unemployment soars to highest level in 16 years.” – New York Times
• “U.S. Foreclosures to Reach Record 3.9 Million in 2009.” – Bloomberg.com
• “New car sales a ‘disaster,’ says Sergio Marchionne, CEO of Chrysler/Fiat.” – NY Daily News

While people were losing their jobs and houses in record numbers, they still had the time and interest to search for Britney Spears and WWE (World Wrestling Entertainment, which is fake wrestling, right?) making them the top two search terms on Yahoo! for 2009.

Although I have no idea what Britney was up to in 2009, I do know that most of us here in Costa Rica felt the impact of this economic downturn.  After a decent start to sales in January and February, most real estate companies saw offers dry up during the following 8 months.

Like many people around the world, the Guys In The Zone shifted gears to “beans & rice mode” (luckily, we both like beans and rice). We tightened up the expenditures and found new streams of income. [Ben deserves some kudos here for his quick mastery of the hard money lending business.  He, (leveraging his experience, contacts, and bilingual-ness) saved more than a few local families from economic disaster.  This lending experience taught us that putting good food on the table is important, but to literally save someone’s table (and house it sits in) from foreclosure is a genuinely rewarding experience.] While we didn’t sell any property during the middle of the year, we did put a lot of time and energy into new listings, our websites, and the Talk Show feature which we will continue to work on in 2010.  Ben also started writing articles for Montana al Mar, a new weekly magazine focused on health, sustainability, and community.

The old adage “When you love what you do, the money will follow” proved true in 2009.  The end of the year found activity picking up noticeably.  Three excellent deals Read the full story

We’ve had a week full of working with buyer-type clients, but they definitely fit into what the “Man Says There’s No Market here” article says below.  I’ll call them the Schmuggerdoos.  They are intent on buying some land, they came here to buy land, they found land that will suit their needs and budget, but that extra spark of “I think I’ll buy this property now” is lacking. They are going back home so that they can return in a few months, maybe, and buy something then. It’s been a great week though.  Rod & I enjoyed getting to know the Schmuggerdoos quite a bit and hope they realize their dream of moving to Costa Rica.  We also are enjoying the ever expanding cooperation between the real estate agencies here.  It is proving to be a real value-add for both buyers & sellers, and it’s improving the quality of life among us real estate professionals. Prior to the Schmuggerdoo’s arrival I had sent their criteria to the other agencies in the area, who responded by sending links to listings on their websites that fit the criteria.  Here is their criteria: Read the full story